About the future of science fiction, I can make one surefire prediction. Writers will make wrong predictions. And the kinds of mistakes they'll make can be predicted by reading old sf stories.
James Blish's short story "Beep" was published in 1954. It begins centuries in the future, jumps back to 2089 or 2090, then returns to the far future.
Here is the late 21st century heroine: "Dana Lje -- her father had been a Hollander, her mother born in the Celebes...The conqueror Resident who had given the girl her entirely European name had been paid in kind, for his daughter's beauty had nothing fair and Dutch about it."
The Netherlands acknowledged Indonesia's independence in 1949. Dutch colonial officials were probably scarce for a while before that. In the last years of the 21st century, Dana is a bit old to be called a girl.
1949 was before 1954. The author missed social and political changes which had already happened.
Dana smokes incessantly, in other people's offices. Today's smoking restrictions weren't in place; but by 1954 there were medical studies which showed smoking caused lung cancer. Tighter rules on smoking could have easily been foreseen.
Technology, Blish overestimated and underestimated.
Overestimation: An extensive interstellar empire by the end of our century is unlikely. In the implausible future we inhabit, even Mars hasn't been settled yet.
By the way, Earth and its empire are run almost entirely by American men. The only female government employee shown is a secretary.
Underestimation: When the viewpoint character of several hundred years later is introduced, he's hiding behind a newspaper. A printed newspaper.
Print newspapers have gotten thinner, and include pointers to material only available on the Web. I do not expect them to be common centuries from now.
"Jo hailed a hopper." The hopper is apparently a flying taxi. Its driver -- male, of course -- is a hoppy.
Self-driving cars are becoming practical now. I expect human-piloted cabs to be very scarce in the far future.
Would readers have found anything implausible about this future? Perhaps the absence of the Red Menace. It was obvious to the meanest intelligence that the Soviet Union would still be strong at the end of the 21st century.
Showing posts with label future gone wrong. Show all posts
Showing posts with label future gone wrong. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
I Don't Want to Be Normal. I Want to Be Healthy. #5 Dan Goodman, 1720 Como Ave SE, Minneapolis, MN 55414. dsgood at iphouse.com or at gmail.com. 612-298-2354
Tuesday October 15, 2013 Ada Lovelace Day
Method of recording brain activity could lead to mind-reading devices, scientists say
http://med.stanford.edu/ism/2013/october/parvizi.html
***Gary Shteyngart wrote recently that he chose to set his novel, “Super Sad True Love Story,” “in an unspecified near future, because setting a novel in the present in a time of unprecedented technological and social dislocation seemed to me shortsighted.” Even so, Mr. Shteyngart’s novel “proved prescient all too quickly.” Soon after it was published, many aspects of the book’s satirical near-future world — from transparent clothing to smartphone apps that help people hook up in bars — had become commonplace.
It’s a problem all novelists have to contend with, to a certain extent. Fiction is supposed to reflect reality, in some way or another. But reality is constantly changing. It can take years to write a novel and in those years, history marches on. Wars break out and governments are toppled, perceptions shift and new gadgets are invented....
http://preview.tinyurl.com/lt6jg54
Not mentioned in the article: Failure to observe what's already happened. In the 1950s, English science fiction writers (notably Arthur C. Clarke) took for granted that England would continue to be a Great Power on Earth, and would become one in space. The UK was no longer a Great Power.
I'm not sure when it should have been obvious that the Soviet Union wasn't going to take over the world.
***From Twitter:
Eric W. Dolan @EWDolan
Lithuania moves to takes advantage of Polish ban on ritual slaughter http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/10/15/lithuania-moves-to-takes-advantage-of-polish-ban-on-ritual-slaughter/ …
Tuesday October 15, 2013 Ada Lovelace Day
Method of recording brain activity could lead to mind-reading devices, scientists say
http://med.stanford.edu/ism/2013/october/parvizi.html
***Gary Shteyngart wrote recently that he chose to set his novel, “Super Sad True Love Story,” “in an unspecified near future, because setting a novel in the present in a time of unprecedented technological and social dislocation seemed to me shortsighted.” Even so, Mr. Shteyngart’s novel “proved prescient all too quickly.” Soon after it was published, many aspects of the book’s satirical near-future world — from transparent clothing to smartphone apps that help people hook up in bars — had become commonplace.
It’s a problem all novelists have to contend with, to a certain extent. Fiction is supposed to reflect reality, in some way or another. But reality is constantly changing. It can take years to write a novel and in those years, history marches on. Wars break out and governments are toppled, perceptions shift and new gadgets are invented....
http://preview.tinyurl.com/lt6jg54
Not mentioned in the article: Failure to observe what's already happened. In the 1950s, English science fiction writers (notably Arthur C. Clarke) took for granted that England would continue to be a Great Power on Earth, and would become one in space. The UK was no longer a Great Power.
I'm not sure when it should have been obvious that the Soviet Union wasn't going to take over the world.
***From Twitter:
Eric W. Dolan @EWDolan
Lithuania moves to takes advantage of Polish ban on ritual slaughter http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/10/15/lithuania-moves-to-takes-advantage-of-polish-ban-on-ritual-slaughter/ …
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