Wednesday November 27, 2013 Thanksgiving Eve
On the Net, someone asked: Given an Earthlike, mostly-rural colony planet, what weapon would be used to hunt wild turkeys?
My response: Depends muchly on the level of technology.
And a warning against use of atomic grenades, which wouldn't leave the meat in condition to be cooked and eaten.
***Comments on "Wrong Futures: James Blish, 'Beep'"
Andre Guirard, 11/26: "Of course, for most people the point of science fiction isn't prediction -- it's story."
Dan Goodman @Andre Guirard, 11/27: Probably true. However, some people like accuracy; and if an sf writer makes inaccurate guesses about the future, that part of the readership can become annoyed -- years, decades, centuries, or millenia before the time in which the story is set.
I remember seeing new "USSR invades America" novels in bookstores for a while after the fall of the Soviet Union. I suspect their reprint value is relatively low.
Jordan 179 11/27: "You're assuming that the current Third World countries will _retain_ their independence. I would not take this for granted, given the high number of failed Third World states and the increasing danger this poses the Great Powers due to improved international communications. I will grant that the _Netherlands_ re-colonizing Indonesia is unlikely for various reasons, but I could easily see Indonesia winding up under the domination of Australia, or China."
I don't think Indonesia is among the most likely to be re-colonized. But one never knows.
"The popularity of smoking has historically waxed and waned. (If you don't believe me, note the original 17th century reaction to the first tobacco-smoking)"
Slight correction -- first outside the Americas.
As happens with various other drugs. Moral panic cycles: A behavior is considered something to joke about and otherwise taken lightly at certain points in the cycle. Then it becomes regarded as A Major Menace.
Apparently, cocaine and heroin have reciprocal cycles. Sometimes cocaine is seen as a relatively safe drug; and there are experts saying it's not really addictive, etc. Not like that horrible drug heroin. Then cocaine becomes The Big Menace -- and at least some druggies turn to nice, safe heroin.
Harry Turtledove's story "The King of All" is set in an alternate world where caffeine is the Big Bad Drug.
"The medical issue might be trivial by the end of the 21st century ('Oh darn, I have lung cancer. Gotta go down to the doctor for a shot to clear that up!').
"I agree with you on the unlikelihood of an extensive interstellar empire by the end of the 21st century. Too many critical energy and social thresholds to cross. In fact this prediction is unlikely even from a c. 1950 point of view.
"I certainly _hope_ that women continue to enjoy the equality with men that they do in the modern Western world, but there are already strong counter-trends, most notably from the growth of Islamic fundamentalism. As to whether or not _America_ still dominates the world of the late 21st century, that's up for grabs. Depending what happens over the ensuing decades, our global leadership might be greater, less or about the same as it is today. America is certainly the country most likely to become the Universal State of the West -- our main rival in that regard would currently be China.
"I don't think 'dumb-paper' newspapers will be that important centuries from now, but people may still want print-outs or other highly-portable displays on surfaces larger than pocket-sized. Though I suspect the information will be projected directly into their retinas, or even brains.
"We're all very lucky that the Soviet Union collapsed without a full-scale World War. It very pleasantly surprised _me_, when it happened. I think it surprised a _lot_ of people."
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Wrong Futures: James Blish, "Beep"
About the future of science fiction, I can make one surefire prediction. Writers will make wrong predictions. And the kinds of mistakes they'll make can be predicted by reading old sf stories.
James Blish's short story "Beep" was published in 1954. It begins centuries in the future, jumps back to 2089 or 2090, then returns to the far future.
Here is the late 21st century heroine: "Dana Lje -- her father had been a Hollander, her mother born in the Celebes...The conqueror Resident who had given the girl her entirely European name had been paid in kind, for his daughter's beauty had nothing fair and Dutch about it."
The Netherlands acknowledged Indonesia's independence in 1949. Dutch colonial officials were probably scarce for a while before that. In the last years of the 21st century, Dana is a bit old to be called a girl.
1949 was before 1954. The author missed social and political changes which had already happened.
Dana smokes incessantly, in other people's offices. Today's smoking restrictions weren't in place; but by 1954 there were medical studies which showed smoking caused lung cancer. Tighter rules on smoking could have easily been foreseen.
Technology, Blish overestimated and underestimated.
Overestimation: An extensive interstellar empire by the end of our century is unlikely. In the implausible future we inhabit, even Mars hasn't been settled yet.
By the way, Earth and its empire are run almost entirely by American men. The only female government employee shown is a secretary.
Underestimation: When the viewpoint character of several hundred years later is introduced, he's hiding behind a newspaper. A printed newspaper.
Print newspapers have gotten thinner, and include pointers to material only available on the Web. I do not expect them to be common centuries from now.
"Jo hailed a hopper." The hopper is apparently a flying taxi. Its driver -- male, of course -- is a hoppy.
Self-driving cars are becoming practical now. I expect human-piloted cabs to be very scarce in the far future.
Would readers have found anything implausible about this future? Perhaps the absence of the Red Menace. It was obvious to the meanest intelligence that the Soviet Union would still be strong at the end of the 21st century.
James Blish's short story "Beep" was published in 1954. It begins centuries in the future, jumps back to 2089 or 2090, then returns to the far future.
Here is the late 21st century heroine: "Dana Lje -- her father had been a Hollander, her mother born in the Celebes...The conqueror Resident who had given the girl her entirely European name had been paid in kind, for his daughter's beauty had nothing fair and Dutch about it."
The Netherlands acknowledged Indonesia's independence in 1949. Dutch colonial officials were probably scarce for a while before that. In the last years of the 21st century, Dana is a bit old to be called a girl.
1949 was before 1954. The author missed social and political changes which had already happened.
Dana smokes incessantly, in other people's offices. Today's smoking restrictions weren't in place; but by 1954 there were medical studies which showed smoking caused lung cancer. Tighter rules on smoking could have easily been foreseen.
Technology, Blish overestimated and underestimated.
Overestimation: An extensive interstellar empire by the end of our century is unlikely. In the implausible future we inhabit, even Mars hasn't been settled yet.
By the way, Earth and its empire are run almost entirely by American men. The only female government employee shown is a secretary.
Underestimation: When the viewpoint character of several hundred years later is introduced, he's hiding behind a newspaper. A printed newspaper.
Print newspapers have gotten thinner, and include pointers to material only available on the Web. I do not expect them to be common centuries from now.
"Jo hailed a hopper." The hopper is apparently a flying taxi. Its driver -- male, of course -- is a hoppy.
Self-driving cars are becoming practical now. I expect human-piloted cabs to be very scarce in the far future.
Would readers have found anything implausible about this future? Perhaps the absence of the Red Menace. It was obvious to the meanest intelligence that the Soviet Union would still be strong at the end of the 21st century.
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Wednesday November 13, 2013 Minnesota Daily story on the Hawaii legislature passing a bill legalizing same-sex marriage: "Sen. Sam Slon...said the government should stay out of legislating marriage.
"'People have differences, and you can't legislate morality. You can try, but you can't do it' ...."
I see an inconsistency there.
***To Waite House for NAPS (Nutritional Assistance for Seniors) food.
And for the twice-monthly produce distribution. Abundant apples, radishes, and cabbage available.
***Southeast Como neighborhood organization Annual Meeting at Van Cleve Park. Attendance was light. And only three or four were college age, in a neighborhood where 52 percent of the population is 18 to 24.
In fiction, political meetings are usually exciting. In real life? File that trope with "War is fun."
***Comments from: Bonnie Randall Schutzman 11/13: "I think in images and sounds, but there's also usually a word-based narrative going on."
tickertape synesthesia
Carole Zastera Michels 11/13 "Words for me. I asked a friend in Germany which language he thought in, and he said he didn't think in a language."
Carol Kennedy 11/13 "In something like patterns, but as I have said before, if one doesn't think in words, it's very hard to describe in words how one thinks!"
John Shannonhouse 11/13 "I think in processes."
Lee Gold 11/13 "Words
"Memory flashbacks (embedded experiences, which includes all senses)"
***From Twitter:
Jeff Noon @jeffnoon My dead wife often speaks clearly: “In two miles turn left.” Other times her voice is garbled, fuzzy with static. The car veers on the road.
Jesse Sheidlower @jessesheidlower Reading Dictionary of Old English online; Chrome asks, "This page is in Malay. Would you like to translate it?" Hmm.
PLOS ONE @PLOSONE Stone-Tipped Spears Predate Existence of Humans http://news.discovery.com/human/evolution/stone-tipped-spears-pre-date-existence-of-humans-131113.htm … via @Discovery_News
[More precisely, they predate our species of human.]
Wonkette @Wonkette Help Us Keep Our Day Drinking Sexy And Discreet With This Bra That Holds Wine - http://happynicetimepeople.com/help-us-keep-day-drinking-sexy-discreet-bra-holds-wine/ …
"'People have differences, and you can't legislate morality. You can try, but you can't do it' ...."
I see an inconsistency there.
***To Waite House for NAPS (Nutritional Assistance for Seniors) food.
And for the twice-monthly produce distribution. Abundant apples, radishes, and cabbage available.
***Southeast Como neighborhood organization Annual Meeting at Van Cleve Park. Attendance was light. And only three or four were college age, in a neighborhood where 52 percent of the population is 18 to 24.
In fiction, political meetings are usually exciting. In real life? File that trope with "War is fun."
***Comments from: Bonnie Randall Schutzman 11/13: "I think in images and sounds, but there's also usually a word-based narrative going on."
tickertape synesthesia
Carole Zastera Michels 11/13 "Words for me. I asked a friend in Germany which language he thought in, and he said he didn't think in a language."
Carol Kennedy 11/13 "In something like patterns, but as I have said before, if one doesn't think in words, it's very hard to describe in words how one thinks!"
John Shannonhouse 11/13 "I think in processes."
Lee Gold 11/13 "Words
"Memory flashbacks (embedded experiences, which includes all senses)"
***From Twitter:
Jeff Noon @jeffnoon My dead wife often speaks clearly: “In two miles turn left.” Other times her voice is garbled, fuzzy with static. The car veers on the road.
Jesse Sheidlower @jessesheidlower Reading Dictionary of Old English online; Chrome asks, "This page is in Malay. Would you like to translate it?" Hmm.
PLOS ONE @PLOSONE Stone-Tipped Spears Predate Existence of Humans http://news.discovery.com/human/evolution/stone-tipped-spears-pre-date-existence-of-humans-131113.htm … via @Discovery_News
[More precisely, they predate our species of human.]
Wonkette @Wonkette Help Us Keep Our Day Drinking Sexy And Discreet With This Bra That Holds Wine - http://happynicetimepeople.com/help-us-keep-day-drinking-sexy-discreet-bra-holds-wine/ …
Friday, November 15, 2013
Thursday November 14, 2013 Novel about synesthetic vampires: Susan Hubbard, The Society of S. Seen at Minneapolis Central Library.
***Adult Children Anonymous meeting. Topic: Laundry List traits 7 and 8:
We get guilt feelings when we stand up for ourselves instead of giving in to others.
We became addicted to excitement.
***Comments from:
bubbleblower, 11/13 "I sometimes think in words, and sometimes in pictures. The pictures are sometimes electronic schematics or other diagrams, and sometimes move (that includes animated diagrams).
"I may occasionally think in other modes, but not often."
Dreamshark, 11/13 "Words, mostly."
stardreamer, 11/13 "I think in words, unless I'm specifically trying to visualize something. This is also one of the reasons I can't read and carry on a conversation at the same time; I 'hear' the words in my head when I'm reading, and they compete for the aural-processing channel."
houseboatonstyx, 11/13 " Pictures Movies Visual diagrams
and
Kinesthetic choreography!
"What NLP calls 'Derived Kino'. As when Lewis said, 'Our muscles respond as we read it.'"
Andre Guirard, 11/13 "I think in condiments."
Lois Fundis, 11/13 "All of the above? Plus music!"
***Adult Children Anonymous meeting. Topic: Laundry List traits 7 and 8:
We get guilt feelings when we stand up for ourselves instead of giving in to others.
We became addicted to excitement.
***Comments from:
bubbleblower, 11/13 "I sometimes think in words, and sometimes in pictures. The pictures are sometimes electronic schematics or other diagrams, and sometimes move (that includes animated diagrams).
"I may occasionally think in other modes, but not often."
Dreamshark, 11/13 "Words, mostly."
stardreamer, 11/13 "I think in words, unless I'm specifically trying to visualize something. This is also one of the reasons I can't read and carry on a conversation at the same time; I 'hear' the words in my head when I'm reading, and they compete for the aural-processing channel."
houseboatonstyx, 11/13 " Pictures Movies Visual diagrams
and
Kinesthetic choreography!
"What NLP calls 'Derived Kino'. As when Lewis said, 'Our muscles respond as we read it.'"
Andre Guirard, 11/13 "I think in condiments."
Lois Fundis, 11/13 "All of the above? Plus music!"
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
Do you think consciously in:
Words?
Pictures?
Movies?
Visual diagrams?
Non-visual diagrams?
Something else?
***"That hilarious moment when a black talk show host gives DNA results to a white supremacist, 'Hey Bro!'"
....
"The studio audience laughed while Goddard, who is a black woman, told him the news that genetically he is 14 per cent Sub Saharan African, 86 per cent European, which Cobb promptly dismissed as 'statistical noise.'"
http://preview.tinyurl.com/n4hxjqb
Via Wolf Bro on Facebook
The figure I've seen for White Americans with nonwhite ancestry is 20 percent. However, I suspect this assumes all European immigrants have been of pure White ancestry.
***From Twitter:
Ben Zimmer @bgzimmer My latest for @lexiconvalley: Batman bin Suparman Arrested on Drug Charges. Here's How He Got His Name. http://www.slate.com/blogs/lexicon_valley/2013/11/11/batman_indonesian_man_with_superhero_name_runs_afoul_of_the_law.html
Political Animal @politic_animal In debate on probation, Richard Drax MP suggesting replacing the Border Agency with a 'militaristic' organisation of conscripted offenders.
Retweeted by Moonbootica
Political Animal @politic_animal They would apparently, use the armed forces' cast-off ships and aeroplanes to patrol the borders. Quite frankly, I'm a bit scared.
Retweeted by Moonbootica
Words?
Pictures?
Movies?
Visual diagrams?
Non-visual diagrams?
Something else?
***"That hilarious moment when a black talk show host gives DNA results to a white supremacist, 'Hey Bro!'"
....
"The studio audience laughed while Goddard, who is a black woman, told him the news that genetically he is 14 per cent Sub Saharan African, 86 per cent European, which Cobb promptly dismissed as 'statistical noise.'"
http://preview.tinyurl.com/n4hxjqb
Via Wolf Bro on Facebook
The figure I've seen for White Americans with nonwhite ancestry is 20 percent. However, I suspect this assumes all European immigrants have been of pure White ancestry.
***From Twitter:
Ben Zimmer @bgzimmer My latest for @lexiconvalley: Batman bin Suparman Arrested on Drug Charges. Here's How He Got His Name. http://www.slate.com/blogs/lexicon_valley/2013/11/11/batman_indonesian_man_with_superhero_name_runs_afoul_of_the_law.html
Political Animal @politic_animal In debate on probation, Richard Drax MP suggesting replacing the Border Agency with a 'militaristic' organisation of conscripted offenders.
Retweeted by Moonbootica
Political Animal @politic_animal They would apparently, use the armed forces' cast-off ships and aeroplanes to patrol the borders. Quite frankly, I'm a bit scared.
Retweeted by Moonbootica
Monday, November 11, 2013
Friday November 9, 2013 Arika Okrent, In the Land of Invented Language. Spiegel & Grau, 2009. Begins chronologically with Hildegarde of Bingen's Lingua Ignota (first invented language of which there's written evidence.) More about people who invent languages, and those who adopt them, than about the languages themselves. Recommended.
****"A few days ago they tore down a house at the other end of the block. I pass the site fairly often on the way to other places, and so far it doesn't look much different from any other torn-down house.
"But you never know. Since the last time I looked the cops may have planted the lot with poison ivy to keep time-traveling burglars from camping there and going back in time to when there was a house there that their campsite would have been inside of. That's not a common M.O. for burglars, but that may be because the cops are diligent about planting poison ivy where houses have been torn down.
"You may doubt me because you've never seen cops planting poison ivy at the sites of torn-down houses. That's because they're careful not to stir up too much publicity lest they start a panic about time-traveling criminals and government agencies abusing time travel to fight them. Likewise, if you go to the police station and ask them if they plant poison ivy on the sites of torn-down houses they'll look at you funny and say No.
"If the police do tell you they don't plant poison ivy on the sites of torn-down houses it's best to at least pretend to believe them. This is not the kind of thing you want to get into arguments with the cops about."
Tom Digby, SILICON SOAPWARE #232
http://www.well.com/~bubbles/
http://www.plergb.com/Mail_Lists/Silicon_Soapware_Zine-Pages.html
Sunday November 10, 2013 Wax hair removal isn't just for women. An ad offers men "Free Eyebrow, Ear or Nose to spruce you up." Women can get "Free Bikini Line, Eyebrow or Underarm....Upgrade to a cheeky Brazilian for $21.00."
***Thought experiment: To qualify as a voter, one must serve one year as a civilian government employee. In theory, this means voters have some idea of how government actually works.
I realized that this solves a problem with my current story.
****"A few days ago they tore down a house at the other end of the block. I pass the site fairly often on the way to other places, and so far it doesn't look much different from any other torn-down house.
"But you never know. Since the last time I looked the cops may have planted the lot with poison ivy to keep time-traveling burglars from camping there and going back in time to when there was a house there that their campsite would have been inside of. That's not a common M.O. for burglars, but that may be because the cops are diligent about planting poison ivy where houses have been torn down.
"You may doubt me because you've never seen cops planting poison ivy at the sites of torn-down houses. That's because they're careful not to stir up too much publicity lest they start a panic about time-traveling criminals and government agencies abusing time travel to fight them. Likewise, if you go to the police station and ask them if they plant poison ivy on the sites of torn-down houses they'll look at you funny and say No.
"If the police do tell you they don't plant poison ivy on the sites of torn-down houses it's best to at least pretend to believe them. This is not the kind of thing you want to get into arguments with the cops about."
Tom Digby, SILICON SOAPWARE #232
http://www.well.com/~bubbles/
http://www.plergb.com/Mail_Lists/Silicon_Soapware_Zine-Pages.html
Sunday November 10, 2013 Wax hair removal isn't just for women. An ad offers men "Free Eyebrow, Ear or Nose to spruce you up." Women can get "Free Bikini Line, Eyebrow or Underarm....Upgrade to a cheeky Brazilian for $21.00."
***Thought experiment: To qualify as a voter, one must serve one year as a civilian government employee. In theory, this means voters have some idea of how government actually works.
I realized that this solves a problem with my current story.
Saturday, November 9, 2013
Friday November 8, 2013 Certain I wasn't going to get any fiction written. But then... This is the zero draft beginning of "The Touch of Any Color" (working title.)
"Whatever he's on, I want some of it." An unprofessional thing for an Interstellar Terminal security employee to say; but Gatha Laken was new.
"That's his ordinary brain state," Jenny Tyler said. "Synesthesia, including kinds rarer than seeing sounds and hearing colors."
"I had synesthesia once," Gatha said. "But my parents had it cured."
After a pause, Jenny replied. "It's not officially classed as a disease."
"My parents were Edenic Orthodox. They believed it was a disease. Like lefthandedness and being attracted to only one sex."
***Comments: Shelley Adrienne Mimi Belsky 11/8: "Amazing how many folks voted on the basis of how folks answered the question？
Do you support the new Vikings Stadium？——"
***In spam listing: No expensive surgeries - if you mix 2 products you can do it at home
***From Twitter:
The Raw Story @RawStory Albania has become Europe’s main marijuana supplier http://ow.ly/qDjqf
Tsholetsang [Kai] @The_Galanteador RT @Lit_Review: 'for Martha, in dismantling me, dredged a voice out of me I did not know I owned' #BadSex
alt_medicine.txt @altmed_txt Is eating just a habit that enslaves us? Is it such a stretch to think people who learn to cultivate their prana can live on that instead?
Retweeted by Ken MacLeod
Ken MacLeod @amendlocke .@altmed_txt If you believe that, I say go for it.
"Whatever he's on, I want some of it." An unprofessional thing for an Interstellar Terminal security employee to say; but Gatha Laken was new.
"That's his ordinary brain state," Jenny Tyler said. "Synesthesia, including kinds rarer than seeing sounds and hearing colors."
"I had synesthesia once," Gatha said. "But my parents had it cured."
After a pause, Jenny replied. "It's not officially classed as a disease."
"My parents were Edenic Orthodox. They believed it was a disease. Like lefthandedness and being attracted to only one sex."
***Comments: Shelley Adrienne Mimi Belsky 11/8: "Amazing how many folks voted on the basis of how folks answered the question？
Do you support the new Vikings Stadium？——"
***In spam listing: No expensive surgeries - if you mix 2 products you can do it at home
***From Twitter:
The Raw Story @RawStory Albania has become Europe’s main marijuana supplier http://ow.ly/qDjqf
Tsholetsang [Kai] @The_Galanteador RT @Lit_Review: 'for Martha, in dismantling me, dredged a voice out of me I did not know I owned' #BadSex
alt_medicine.txt @altmed_txt Is eating just a habit that enslaves us? Is it such a stretch to think people who learn to cultivate their prana can live on that instead?
Retweeted by Ken MacLeod
Ken MacLeod @amendlocke .@altmed_txt If you believe that, I say go for it.
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